Correction and update — 17 September 2026: We have repaired the sources for the states’ June submission and retained its verified warnings and quotations. We have corrected the social-participation proposal from 20% to 50%, clarified that participant exits were modelled, and separated historical disagreement from the Act’s August passage and current rollout dates.
TL;DR
- State and territory disability ministers warned in a June submission that they could not provide “like-for-like services” for people leaving the NDIS [1].
- They raised concerns about consultation, shared governance and pressure on mainstream services [1].
- A separate June agreement extended the Senate inquiry until 14 August [2].
- The Bill subsequently passed in August; implementation remains staged [3][4].
What the states and territories said
The Guardian reported on 11 June that state and territory disability ministers supported curbing NDIS growth but said that goal should not be prioritised over participant safety, wellbeing and life outcomes. Their joint submission said they had not been meaningfully consulted and warned of a shift away from shared governance [1].
Ministers criticised the absence of clearly defined alternative supports and the risk of unmet need and cost-shifting to health, education and justice systems. Their submission said:
“States and territories are not in a position, and have made no agreement, to deliver like-for-like services to people who are exited from the NDIS” [1].
That was a specific position about replacement services in June. It should not be expanded into a claim that no disability-related funding agreements existed between governments.
The participant numbers and support concerns
The Guardian reported departmental modelling of more than 240,000 existing participants leaving after access changes begin in 2028 [1]. Its detailed May report gives the figure as 241,000 by mid-2031, a forecast rather than completed exits or individual decisions [5].
The June report also described evidence that planned 50% reductions to social and community participation budgets could increase isolation and unsafe situations [1]. Our earlier use of 20% did not describe that proposal correctly.
The ministers warned that an uncoordinated transition could lead people into hospitals or unsuitable settings, or leave them without services [1]. These were prospective risks raised in their submission, not a finding that every participant would experience those outcomes.
The federal response and inquiry extension
The Guardian reported that Mark Butler defended the plan as carefully developed and centred on people with disability. Shadow NDIS minister Melissa McIntosh criticised the rushed timetable while supporting sustainability as an objective [1].
On 23 June, ABC reported an agreement between Labor and the Greens extending the inquiry by eight weeks to 14 August in exchange for tax-reform support [2]. This was a later development than the states' submission.
What has changed since that reporting?
The department confirms passage through Parliament on 19 August and Royal Assent on 20 August [3]. Its current timeline distinguishes a phased Thriving Kids rollout from October 2026, full national operation in January 2028 and NDIS access changes from January 2028 [4].
Grattan's Sam Bennett had highlighted the importance of state involvement and readiness of supports outside the NDIS in his April analysis [6]. That implementation concern remains distinct from the factual question of whether the legislation passed.
For a local transition, ask which service is available, how referrals work and what arrangements apply while support is being organised. Use current program information and individual correspondence rather than assuming a June forecast determines your plan.
FAQ
Q: Did states say they could not offer like-for-like services? Yes. The Guardian reported that wording from their joint submission in June [1].
Q: Does the 241,000 forecast mean those exits have already occurred? No. It is a historical model of existing-participant exits by mid-2031 [5].
Q: Is the NDIS Bill still before Parliament? No. It passed in August and its measures have separate implementation dates [3][4].
References
[1] Sarah Basford Canales, Dan Jervis-Bardy, Benita Kolovos and Caitlin Cassidy, The Guardian, 11 June 2026. We can’t deliver like-for-like services for people kicked off the NDIS, states warn Albanese government.
[2] Evan Young and Nas Campanella, ABC News, 23 June 2026. Disability advocates welcome extension after ridiculous and disrespectful NDIS inquiry.
[3] Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, updated 4 September 2026. NDIS legislation: passage and Royal Assent.
[4] Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, updated 15 September 2026. NDIS reform implementation timeline.
[5] Dan Jervis-Bardy, The Guardian, 28 May 2026. New NDIS eligibility rules will cut 241,000 participants from scheme in four years, documents reveal.
[6] Sam Bennett, Grattan Institute, 22 April 2026. The NDIS reform package is a step forward.